NSF Abstract

Communities in the Southern Great Plains are increasingly affected by winter ice storms. These pose serious yet often overlooked risks to urban environments and produce freezing rain that accumulates on trees. The resulting ice burden leads to tree failure and falls, widespread vegetation breakage, blocked roads, power outages, and damage to homes and infrastructure. While residents of the area are familiar with tornado and severe thunderstorm preparedness, there is less awareness and readiness concerning the cascading impacts of ice storms, particularly in urban areas. This research addresses this gap by advancing scientific understanding and practical and effective solutions for managing winter storm-related tree hazards. The project engages Oklahoma City, Oklahoma public agencies, nonprofit organizations, and residents to co-develop tools and strategies to improve storm response, support public decision-making, and generate insights that can be shared across communities. Broader impacts of the work include improvements to public safety, continuity of essential services, and community and neighborhood preparedness. This project examines the physical, environmental, and social factors that contribute to urban tree damage during ice storms and develops actionable tools that local communities can use. Work involves integrating disparate types of data from meteorological forecasts, high-resolution satellite remote sensing, and community-based data. From these, the team a damage prediction framework is created that is capable of identifying high-risk areas that need increased attention and potential mitigation before a storm occurs. It will inform and help to direct emergency response to the areas that are most vulnerable to damage and power outages. It will also generate new scientific knowledge about tree vulnerability and storm dynamics in urban settings through delivery of an interactive online platform that communicates tree risk forecasts and damage scenarios to both residents and decision-makers. Community input plays a central role in validating and improving the tools being created. This ensures local context and realities are reflected in the final workable result. The dual emphasis on research and application, allows the project to significantly advance the science of urban hazard mitigation and produce a replicable model for data-informed, locally-grounded, resilience planning.